Pennsylvanians are used to seeing more national political commercials than their counterparts in nearby Maryland, New Jersey or New York. For decades, the Keystone State has been a swing state and a crucial litmus test for the presidency, with the winner of Pennsylvania taking the national electoral vote more than 80% of the time across the history of the United States.
In 2024, as the war in Israel rages on, the importance of the Jewish vote is heightened even more. Jews make up only 3% of the Pennsylvania electorate, according to Newsweek, but will be a crucial demographic for the races for presidency and the Senate.
Daniel Mitzner, director of government affairs at the Teach Coalition, a project of the Orthodox Union, said that the events of last autumn changed the priorities for many Jewish voters.
“What it means to be a Jew in America — and really the world — changed after Oct. 7. While antisemitism has been on the rise for a number of years, the frequency of incidents have skyrocketed [since then],” he said. “Jewish communities across the country are waking up to the idea that action needs to be taken and the easiest thing they can do is vote.”
This in turn has many Jewish voters reevaluating which candidates have their interests at heart. Mitzner said that the strong supporting stance that many members of the GOP have taken has initiated a shift away from the usual home of Jewish voters — the left — for some.
“Depending on [where one falls on] the scale of secular to more religious, there are shifts,” he said. “The more [religious] communities skew more towards the right, but I do think there is a general movement to the center-right as communities see an increase in hate crimes.”
He added that there is still a “very strong” base of Jews that vote Democrat, which won’t change in the course of one election cycle. Mitzner referenced an old adage to remind the public that Jewish voters are not a monolith.
“If there are two Jews, you have three opinions,” he said.
A spokesperson for the Jewish Electoral Institute said the Jewish vote matters because Jews are traditionally very involved in governmental affairs.
“I think it’s [because of] a history of civic engagement. Jews are involved on so many levels: voluntarily, philanthropically, communally,” they said. “[Jewish values like] Tikkun Olam are one reason.”
A recent Jewish Democratic Council of America poll found that Vice President Kamala Harris has the support of 72% of American Jews, compared to 25% for former President Donald Trump.
Republican Jewish Coalition CEO Matt Brooks stated at his organization’s convention last month that the RJC had data showing that almost half of Jewish voters in swing states would vote for Trump. An Orthodox Union poll also showed a closer race for the Jewish vote in Pennsylvania.
According to the 2022 census estimate, the Jewish population of Pennsylvania is more than 400,000. President Biden beat Trump by just 80,000 votes in the state in 2020.
One way to subdivide the Jewish community and identify more predictable voting trends is by denomination. As Mitzner explained, the Orthodox community tends to skew further right, while Reform Jews skew to the left.
“The tendency towards more religious or affiliated communities to lean right is higher, but I do think that there is a general skew in the middle as well to start moving more to the center-right,” he said.
Mitzner said that, regardless of who a given Jew votes for, his organization’s goal is to make sure they all vote for someone.
“Our mission is to make sure everyone is participating in elections,” he said.
With the state of the world today, that shouldn’t be as hard as it has been in other cycles, he added.
“We find ourselves at a time where we cannot take our security and our safety and our ability to practice Judaism for granted,” Mitzner said. “That requires putting people in office that represent our values and understand the needs of our community so that we can live openly and proudly.”
