As Gaza Fighting Rages, Diplomats Push for a Lull

The Israeli dilemma is how to create conditions on the ground that guarantee security for southern Israel without granting Hamas a measure of international legitimacy. The Israelis have been warning against a scenario in which a defeated Hamas makes enormous political gains by being treated by the international community as a full partner in cease-fire negotiations.

Israeli analysts said that although the Hamas military infrastructure has been dealt a devastating blow, the organization's fighting force remains largely intact. One of the goals of the Israeli ground operation is to hit the militia's fighters hard, which means engaging in tough house-to-house combat.

The militiamen have taken up positions in built-up areas in densely populated towns and refugee camps, and confronting them in those conditions is very risky for Israeli soldiers and Palestinian civilians. By mid-week, at least six Israeli soldiers had died -- four by friendly fire -- as had nearly 600 Palestinians, including children.

The serious escalation brought French President Nicolas Sarkozy and three European foreign ministers to the region in an effort to bring the fighting to an end.

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni indicated Israel's readiness to end the war, but only if its exit demands were met. Otherwise, it would ratchet up its already intense military pressure on Hamas.

Israeli officials say that granting Hamas international legitimacy by bringing them into the cease-fire negotiations is totally unacceptable. Hamas gained power through a violent coup in June 2007 and remains dedicated to Israel's destruction.

The Israelis are therefore seeking a new international "arrangement" that would address all their security concerns, as well as the issue of border crossings to and from Gaza.

In other words, Israel is not interested in returning to the old formula of third-party mediation for a cease-fire, or tadiyeh, a process that would give Hamas a degree of international recognition.

In their contacts with the Americans and Europeans, Israeli leaders have outlined three key elements they would like to see included in the new arrangements: a credible cease-fire to end rocket fire on Israeli civilians; an internationally supervised mechanism to prevent Hamas rearming; and joint European Union, Egyptian and Palestinian Authority supervision at border crossing points.

To deter Hamas from firing more rockets after a cease-fire is achieved, Israel wants to have its right to retaliate written into the terms of the agreement.

The biggest headache for the Israelis is the possibility of Hamas rebuilding and even enhancing its rocket-firing capabilities by smuggling new and longer-range weapons across the border with Egypt under cover of a cease-fire.

Israel is demanding that the new arrangements on the ground include collapsing all the smuggling tunnels under the so-called Philadelphi route along the Gaza-Egypt border; erecting a physical barrier on the Egyptian side of the border that would make smuggling virtually impossible; deploying an international force in the buffer zone between Egypt and Gaza; and securing a commitment from Egypt to stop the flow of arms into Sinai, from where they find their way to the Gaza border.

Hamas' main demand before and during the fighting has been that Israel allow the opening of all crossing points in and out of Gaza. Israel says that it's prepared to do so, on the basis of a 2005 agreement under which the crossings would be supervised jointly by Israel, the Palestinian Authority (not Hamas), Egypt and the European Union. This is also the Egyptian position with regard to the Rafah crossing point from Gaza into Egypt.

One of the difficulties with the uncompromising Israeli position against talking to Hamas is the way it complicates chances for the return of captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. Israeli leaders say they would like to see Shalit's return as part of the overall cease-fire arrangement, but it's hard to see how this could be accomplished without a prisoner exchange deal with Hamas.

Which Comes First?
The Americans and Europeans are split in their approach to the Israeli cease-fire terms.

The Americans say that a cease-fire should only be put in place when conditions exist for it to be stable and lasting -- in other words, only after something like the new border reality Israel envisages can be established.

The Europeans, however, believe that a cease-fire should go into effect immediately. After talks with Livni in Jerusalem, the foreign ministers of the Czech Republic -- the current holder of the E.U.'s rotating presidency -- France and Sweden made it clear that they were against waiting until all Israel's war aims are achieved. They say these aims could be secured more easily once a cease-fire is in place.

So while the Americans and Israelis are saying that a new reality must come first, then a cease-fire, the Europeans are saying the opposite: cease-fire first, then a new reality.