Polls Show That Jewish Vote in State Went Solidly to Clinton

In the Pennsylvania primary, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) outperformed rival Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) by nearly 25 percentage points. That lopsided margin has raised several questions: To what extent did concern about Obama's Middle East advisers and his relationship to his retired pastor hamper his intensive efforts to court Jewish support throughout the state?

And if Obama does become the nominee -- despite the loss in Pennsylvania, he still leads in pledged delegates, states won and the popular vote -- will he be able to count on sizable Jewish support or will John McCain, the presumed Republican nominee, be able to compete for a substantial number of those votes?

On primary night, it looked as though the Jewish vote closely mirrored the statewide breakdown: Exit polls showed Jews favoring Clinton over Obama by 57 percent to 43 percent. But the following day, as the dust began to settle on the bruising seven-week contest, the numbers were readjusted to shows Jews backing Clinton by a wider margin: 62 percent to 38 percent.

The numbers were also readjusted to show Jews comprising 8 percent of the total vote, up 1 percent from Election Night. Jews account for about 2.3 percent of Pennsylvania's populace.

"They didn't accomplish what they set out to do -- I don't think there is any doubt about that," said G. Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa.

Madonna was referring to Obama's heavy push to overcome skepticism in the Jewish community -- an effort that included a meeting he had with communal leaders in which he reaffirmed his commitment to Israel and to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. He also distanced himself from his controversial former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, and spoke about his longstanding relationship with Chicago's Jewish community.

When it comes to the impact of the Jewish vote in the primary, several observers have pointed to Montgomery County.

Marcel Groen, chair of that county's Democratic Party, has estimated that Jews comprise 17 percent of registered voters, with the vast majority Democrats.

Analysts expected Obama to carry the suburban county, since he's done well with highly educated and wealthy voters, which the county has in large concentrations. Clinton has performed better among blue-collar voters and, in fact, did exceedingly well in rural and ex-urban counties. Obama's campaign had hoped to make up ground in the southeast portion of the state that he lost in areas of the northeast, central and western parts.

Yet in southeastern Pennsylvania, Clinton eked out a narrow majority, with 77,686 votes to Obama's 75,682. Madonna said that the Jewish vote made the difference in Montgomery County, which was as much a symbolic as a real victory since pledged delegates are awarded on the basis of congressional districts, and not by counties.

He added that Clinton may have helped her cause with her performance at the April 16 debate in Philadelphia, specifically, her assertion that, if elected, she would respond to an Iranian nuclear attack on Israel with "massive retaliation."

State Rep. Josh Shapiro (D-District 153), who pushed hard for Obama in the Jewish community, said that while Obama's answer to the Iran question was not as concise as Clinton's, it effectively offered the same conclusion. Previously, both Clinton and Obama had refused to discuss the "hypothetical" scenario of the Iranians acquiring nuclear weapons, and instead focused on how they would work to prevent such an occurrence.

'Work to Do'
Obama has won the Jewish vote in several states, such as Massachusetts and Connecticut.

In New Jersey and her home state of New York, Clinton won roughly 65 percent of the Jewish vote. A late March Gallup poll had Obama in a virtual tie with Clinton for Jewish voters.

"Our outreach was successful in that it got the facts out about Sen. Obama's strong record on Israel and in the Jewish community," said Shapiro. "Obviously, we have work to do to continue to make the case in the Jewish community -- and we will do that aggressively."

Mark Aronchick, a Center City lawyer and Clinton supporter, argued that Jews were overwhelmingly drawn to the known quantity in the New York centrist.

"Clinton is rock-solid -- we know where she stands," said Aronchick, a Clinton campaign chair in Pennsylvania. "Obama made a worthy effort at meeting with community leaders, but it was too little too late."

Jules Mermelstein, an Obama supporter who ran as a delegate candidate, thinks the false e-mail campaign claiming Obama was a Muslim may have hurt him.

A history teacher at Upper Dublin High School in Fort Washington and a commissioner of Upper Dublin Township, Mermelstein said that the Philadelphia Jewish community tends to be right-of-center on issues related to Israel, and Obama's focus on fostering dialogue may have hurt him in this demographic.

"I was disappointed. I was expecting him to carry the 8th and the 13th [congressional districts]," said Mermelstein, adding that he was frustrated because he thinks Obama and Clinton are equally pro-Israel.

"It's definitely a concern that has to be dealt with," said Mermelstein regarding Obama's low performance in the Jewish vote.

William Rosenberg, a professor of political science at Drexel University in Philadelphia, thinks that if Obama is the party's presidential nominee, he won't have to worry about losing many Jewish votes to McCain.

"A lot of the Jews who support Hillary Clinton are not going to jump across and vote for McCain," predicted Rosenberg.

But, he noted: Would former Clinton supporters became active in Obama's campaign and, just as importantly, would they make campaign contributions?